Yole estimates that China's memory self-sufficiency rate is less than 15%.

Apple's idea that YMTC could supply NAND flash memory for its smartphones, which Foxconn assembles for Apple in China, was quickly shot down. And in October 2022, the United States imposed additional restrictions on the supply of chip manufacturing equipment and added this leading company to the so-called "entity list." These restrictions will prevent the two leading companies from becoming competitive in the memory business.

According to Yole, YMTC is currently shipping 64-layer and 128-layer NAND in China, and the 232-layer of its innovative Xtacking 3.0 architecture is in the early production stage. Due to the lack of support from major equipment suppliers, its wafer production capacity is effectively limited to 115,000 to 120,000 wafers per month, and its technology roadmap has also been put on hold. Lack of access to spare parts and consumables could lead to a reduction in their production capacity.

Although Changxin Memory is not included in the "Entity List," the company also faces significant challenges in executing its roadmap. It is producing 27nm memory that complies with the DDR4 and LPDDR4 standards, while 1xnm memory is in mass production. Maintaining that capability and amount of ramp will be difficult: progress to 1ynm and 1znm may be impossible.

However, YMTC's capex in 2022 is on a par with Micron's capex, and Changxin Memory has invested heavily in terms of its company size.